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Vivax Firmware 19
we first model p. vivax transmission among individual towns using the simplest deterministic model by assuming that the mosquito population density is independent of location. with this model, the local infection risk at node is given by: (2)where is the local mosquito density, is the biting rate of mosquitoes on human, and is the probability of a human being being infected by an infectious mosquito per bite, given that the biting rate is and the average duration of the infectious period of p. vivax is. based on the study of lai et al. [18], we assume that the biting rate of mosquitoes is proportional to the density of human beings. in addition, it has been shown that the proportion of infected mosquitoes is positively correlated with the temperature [19]. therefore, we consider the biting rate to be proportional to the density of human beings, given that it is positively correlated with temperature. note that the density of human beings and the density of mosquitoes may vary from one town to another. to better accommodate the fact that the transmission potential of p. vivax is always not larger than its potential to cause severe malaria, we assume that the average incubation period of p. vivax is proportional to the density of human beings.
for the first step (i), we assume that the underlying transmission networks of p. vivax are not known. this is reasonable because in the most cases, the underlying transmission networks of p. vivax are hard to be identified from the surveillance data.
to demonstrate the potentiality of the proposed method, we perform a simulation study on a synthetic dataset. the results show that the proposed method can effectively reconstruct the underlying transmission networks, which can further serve as a reasonable alternative for surveillance and control of p. vivax.
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