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for flowering and fruiting, the model clearly shows that temperature is the most important driver. the effect of precipitation on these phenophases is negative and only significant at low temperatures, while the number of days with precipitation before flowering does not significantly influence the flowering probability. moreover, there is no significant effect of precipitation on the probability of fruiting. the model also shows that temperature is the most important driver for oviposition. the data and the model are provided as supplementary material. the data are archived in the dryad digital repository [27].
first, we analyzed the impact of temperature and precipitation on the date of leaf unfolding, flowering, fruiting, and senescence (i.e., the four main phenophases in temperate climates) for each plant functional type separately. the overall time trend of phenological phases was detected by a loess smoother (figs. 2, s1, s2, s3, s4 ). subsequently, the change in the date of a phenophase was expressed as the date difference to the overall time trend, i., as a slope of the loess smoother (see appendix a in the supplementary material). fig. 3 presents the main results of the model selection procedure based on aic. the final model for each phenophase of each plant functional type and for all plant functional types together (i., average model) is shown in table 4. table 4 displays the corresponding parameter estimates and their respective 95% confidence intervals. the results of the final model of each plant functional type are shown in fig. 4. here, the overall model including the parameter estimates is shown, whereas the parameters without a corresponding parameter estimate are shown in gray. note that the time steps are given in months, i., the doy of the first phenophase is zero in this model. therefore, this model estimates the starting point (not the current state) of the phenophase.
all other plant functional types show a similar trend towards an earlier onset of leaf unfolding, flowering, and fruiting, which reflects the general phenological advancement of all deciduous broadleaf trees during the period considered. this is in line with the findings of templ et al. ( 2017 ) and garca-mozo et al. ( 2010 ), who observe strong advancements in the flowering of herbaceous species and trees in the iberian peninsula. this advancement of phenophases is likely the effect of increasing temperatures, which in turn accelerates plant growth. for leaf unfolding, the phenomenon of leaf unfolding in the previous year is mostly important. there is a small exception for the year when leaf unfolding occurs, where the time of leaf unfolding in the previous year is not related to the temperatures during the time span of 15 the flexibility of the approach applied in this study using flexible time intervals allows for a detailed investigation of the respective climatological drivers of phenophases at various time spans, which enables a reliable identification of climatic drivers. more specifically, the time span between the temperature time series and the respective phenological date is used to assess the importance of different periods. the results indicate that the advancement of phenological phases is driven by temperature in the months directly preceding the respective phenophases, which is in line with the findings of menzel et al. ( 2019 ). these findings confirm our assumption that temperature during the months directly preceding phenophases is the most important driver for the advancement of leaf unfolding, flowering, and fruiting. however, the main driver for the advancement of leaf unfolding and flowering is not the same in the months preceding these phases, where temperature during the months directly preceding flowering is of greater relevance for the advancement of leaf unfolding and flowering, whereas temperature during the months directly preceding fruiting is of greater relevance for flowering. the flexible approach applied in this study allows for a precise identification of these drivers and further identification of the main climatological drivers of phenological changes, which is not possible when using fixed calendar months. 5ec8ef588b
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